Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds 不可避免的错觉：理性的错误如何控制我们的思维 fb2 免费 lrf 下载 kindle azw3 pdf 阿里云

Minimally, how many people must there be in a room to allow a better than 50 percent chance that two of them will have the same birthday? Your answer may reveal the presence of a cognitive illusion-a mental tunnel that confounds rational thought. Piattelli-Palmarini, director of the Cognitive Science Institute in Milan and a research associate at MIT, offers fascinating examples of such illusions to show how spontaneous, intuitive judgment can lead us astray. Our failure to grasp basic probability, for example, can lead to catastrophic decisions in law and medicine. The author describes the seven deadly mental sins and suggests ways to overcome bias and "mental sloth." This thoughtful, often disturbing book will challenge even those readers with a firm grounding in probability and statistics. For academic and large public libraries.

Laurie Bartolini, Legislative Research, Springfield, Ill.

Copyright 1994 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction

CHAPTER 1 Cognitive Illusions

CHAPTER 2 Our Spontaneous Intuitions:

　Angels or Demons?

CHAPTER 3 A Brief Speleology of the Mind:

　An Easy Tunnel

CHAPTER 4 Probability Illusions

CHAPTER 5 Calculating the Unknown, or Bayes' Law

CHAPTER 6 The Fallacy of Near Certainty

CHAPTER 7 The Seven Deadly Sins

CHAPTER 8 How to Emerge from the

Tunnel of Pessimism

CHAPTER 9 The Principle of Identity and the

Psychology of Typicality

CHAPTER 10 A (Rationally) Optimistic Conclusion

(;RAND FINALE A Super-Tunnel

APPENDIX A Mental Tunnels: A Brief History of Discovery

APPENDIX B Why Cognitive Illusions Are ltere to Stay: A Reply to Recent Critiques

Tunnel Exits nnel Exits

Main Sources

Other General Sources

Suggested Reading

Index

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